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Rent vs. Buy

Every cost of owning, including the ones the listing leaves out, against renting and investing the difference. Pick a place for real price history, then argue with every assumption.

Where

Over the last 20 years, home prices here changed +3.5% a year, or +0.95% after inflation.

Worst fall since 1991: 21.9% from 2007 to 2011, back to its peak by 2016.

Home price index (1991 = 100)
0100200300400500199419982002200620102014201820222026

FHFA purchase-only house price index, not adjusted for inflation.

Typical single-family home $371K, rent $2,290/mo (Zillow).

Buying breaks even after

8 years, 2 months

Sell any sooner and renting would have left you richer. After 30 years, buying is ahead by $495K.
Net worth if you cashed out, by year Buy Rent and invest
$0$200K$400K$600K$800K$1M$1.2M$1.4MBuy dayYr 5Yr 10Yr 15Yr 20Yr 25Yr 30Break-even
After 10 years $230K Buy $215K Rent Buying ahead by $15K

Selling after 10 years: the home is worth $522K, you owe $256K, and selling costs $37K.

What it costs each month

Owning, first year

Mortgage interest
$1,788
Principal Comes back to you as equity
$237
Property tax
$281
Homeowners insurance
$204
Routine upkeep About 33 Home Depot runs a year
$235
Roof, HVAC and other replacements Set aside every month
$156
Per month
$2,900

No tax savings: interest and property tax don't beat the standard deduction for you, so the mortgage deduction is worth $0. Of what you pay, $2,663/mo is gone for good, like rent.

Renting, first year

Rent
$2,290
Renters insurance
$15
Per month
$2,305

Plus $85K the buyer spent at closing, invested instead. The landlord fixes the water heater.

If appreciation or rent is different

Years until buying breaks even By yearly home price growth (rows) and rent (columns). — means never within 30 years.
Growth$1,603/mo$1,947/mo$2,290/mo$2,634/mo$2,977/mo
−1.5%——251711
−0.49%——24159
+0.51%——23137
+1.5%——19105
+2.5%——1474
+3.5%——843
+4.5%—12532
+5.5%—6432
+6.5%74322

About this tool

Who it's for
For renters wondering whether to buy, and buyers wondering whether they should have.
What you can enter
A state or metro, the price, down payment, mortgage rate and term, property tax, insurance, HOA, upkeep and replacements, rent, income and filing status, and growth rates for prices, rent, investments and inflation.
What it runs on
Zillow home values and rents and FHFA price history for every state and major metro, with the tax map's 2026 federal engine for the mortgage interest and property tax deductions. Sources and simplifications are under How this is calculated.
Who made it
Sam Wen, co-founder of Square. Free, no sign-up; it runs in your browser. Last updated .

Worked example: Renting vs. buying a typical home in Seattle.

Spot a mistake, or a rule that changed? Tell me.

Frequently asked questions

Isn’t renting just throwing money away?

So is mortgage interest. In the first year of a 30-year loan at 7%, almost 90% of your payment is interest, and property tax, insurance, maintenance and the return your down payment isn't earning are gone too. Rent is the price of a place to live; so are those. Only the principal comes back to you, and only after the agent takes about 6% on the way out.

My uncle says real estate never goes down.

Your uncle didn't buy in Las Vegas in 2006. FHFA's index for Nevada fell 59% by 2011 and didn't get back to its peak until 2020. Austin is still about 20% below its 2022 high, and over the last 20 years California homes lost a little ground to inflation. Pick a place above and look at its worst fall before you trust anyone's uncle.

Will I buy a riding mower?

Within eighteen months, and a leaf blower you'll use twice. That's what the routine-upkeep line is for, along with the gutter guy, the plumber who "just has to come look at it," and roughly two Home Depot runs a month. The roof and furnace are separate; they don't care how handy you are.

But my mortgage is a huge tax write-off, right?

Probably not. Interest only helps once it and your state and local taxes beat the standard deduction ($32,200 for a married couple in 2026), and then only the part above it counts, at your marginal rate. Roughly one filer in ten itemizes. In 2030 the SALT cap drops back to $10,000, which makes it rarer still. This page runs your numbers through the same tax engine as the tax map, so the line says what it's actually worth.

Isn’t a house forced savings?

Yes, and it's the best argument for buying. This comparison assumes the renter actually invests the down payment and every dollar of difference, every month, for thirty years, through every crash. If you wouldn't, set the investment return to what your savings account pays and watch buying win.

Should I just buy now and refinance when rates drop?

"Marry the house, date the rate" assumes rates drop and the date is free. A refinance costs another 2–5% in closing costs and isn't modeled here. Lower the mortgage rate to see what a refinance would be worth if it happens, then decide whether you want to bet on it.

Partly jokes. Not financial advice, and the mower is not optional.

How this is calculated

The comparison

  • Two households, one budget. Each month both spend the same amount. The buyer pays the mortgage, PMI, property tax, insurance, HOA and upkeep; the renter pays rent and renters insurance. Whoever spends less that month invests the difference.
  • The renter invests the down payment and closing costs on day one, at the investment return you set. That's the opportunity cost of buying.
  • Net worth assumes you cash out. The buyer sells, pays agents and transfer taxes, pays off the loan, and pays capital gains tax on any gain beyond the $250K/$500K exclusion (none if sold within two years). Both households pay capital gains tax on their investment gains.
  • Break-even is the first month the buyer's cashed-out net worth reaches the renter's. If renting pulls ahead again later, the result says so.
  • PMI is charged on the original loan when you put down less than 20%, until the balance reaches 78% of the purchase price, when the Homeowners Protection Act cancels it.
  • Upkeep is routine maintenance as a share of the home's value plus a reserve for big replacements (cost ÷ lifespan, rising with inflation). The defaults add up to about 1.3% of a typical home's value a year, inside the usual 1–2% rule of thumb.
  • The tax deduction runs through the tax map's 2026 federal engine: tax as a renter minus tax as an owner who may itemize mortgage interest (on up to $750K of debt) and property tax under the SALT cap. Income keeps pace with inflation, brackets are indexed, and the SALT cap follows current law: 1% higher each year through 2029, then $10,000 from 2030. Savings are invested by the buyer.

Defaults and simplifications

  • Picking a place fills in Zillow's typical single-family home value and rent (2026-08), FHFA's 20-year annualized appreciation through 2026 Q2, and the tax map's effective property tax rate. Zillow has no state rent index, so a state's rent applies its metros' median rent-to-price ratio. Metro divisions use their whole metro's Zillow figures.
  • The mortgage rate is Freddie Mac's latest weekly average (7.3% on 2026-10-01). Rent growth (3.5%) and inflation (2.5%) are BLS 20-year averages.
  • Appreciation, rent growth and returns are steady averages. Real markets lurch, and a bad decade early on hurts more than the average suggests; use the sensitivity table to see how much that matters.
  • Property tax and insurance follow the home's value; some states cap assessments (California's Proposition 13), which would favor buying there.
  • State income tax deductions for mortgage interest, refinancing, moving costs, and the value of staying put or being able to leave aren't modeled. The national view leaves state income tax out.
  • This is a planning estimate, not financial or tax advice.

Sources

Market data compiled 2026-10-01.