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Can We Afford a Kid?

The number everyone quotes is what a child costs to 18. The number that decides things is daycare against the second paycheck, after that paycheck has been taxed at the top of the household's bracket. Here's this year's answer, the salary where staying home breaks even, and what five years out of work really costs.

Working with childcare nets more than staying home this year, by

$3,093 a month

The $60K paycheck keeps 82.1% after 17.9% in federal, payroll and Texas tax on top of the first income, helped by $2,224 of childcare tax breaks. Childcare takes $12K of what's left. Below $13K a year, staying home wins this year; above it, working does.

Over 18 years, with 5 at home, working comes out $544K ahead.

Where the second paycheck goes this year

Second paycheck$60,000
Federal income tax−$6,750
Social Security, Medicare and state payroll−$4,016
Childcare−$12,119
Left over from working$37,114

$7,500 of the paycheck goes through a dependent care FSA before tax, which is why the credit row is missing: each FSA dollar lowers the credit's expense cap by a dollar.

The long view

Working minus staying home, year by year Working ahead Home ahead Running total
$0$100K$200K$300K$400K$500K$600Kback to workNow+1+3+5+7+9+11+13+15+17

Today's dollars, this year's tax law. The stay-home partner returns after 5 years at 9.6% below the pay they'd have had, and the match on the paycheck they didn't earn never compounds. Both paths pay for care whenever both parents work.

What a child costs to 18

$411K from birth through 17 for one child, $135K of it childcare. The USDA's own figure for a family earning $84K to $152K is $330K in today's dollars.

A year of one child, by age Housing, food, clothes, health, the rest Your childcare
$0$10K$20K$30KBirth369121517
Household income todayUSDA, 2015 dollarsToday's dollars
under $84K$175K$247K
$84K to $152K$234K$330K
over $152K$372K$526K

USDA figures are for the younger child in a two-child, married-couple family, from the department's last estimate (2015), brought to August 2026 prices with the CPI. Its own child care and education line, an average over families with and without paid care, is swapped for your childcare above. An only child runs about 27% more per year; each of three or more, 24% less.

College is extra: Saving for College shows what four years will cost when a child born this year enrolls, and the monthly 529 contribution that covers it.

About this tool

Who it's for
For couples deciding whether they can afford a child, and whether one of them should stay home.
What you can enter
Each partner's pay, your state, how many kids and their ages, childcare costs, years at home, raises, the pay cut per year out, retirement match, and the return on the difference.
What it runs on
2026 federal and state tax law including the dependent care FSA, child care credit and child tax credit, Child Care Aware of America prices by state, and USDA child-rearing costs. Sources and simplifications are under How this is calculated.
Who made it
Sam Wen, co-founder of Square. Free, no sign-up; it runs in your browser. Last updated .

Spot a mistake, or a rule that changed? Tell me.

Frequently asked questions

Daycare costs more than my whole salary. So I should quit, right?

Only if the next decade doesn't count. Daycare is a five-year bill; the paycheck is a thirty-year one. The year-one math often favors staying home, but the long view adds the raises you'd have gotten, the pay cut on coming back, and the retirement match that didn't compound. Scroll to the chart: for most couples the working line goes negative, then crosses back well before kindergarten is over. Quitting can still be the right call. Just make it with the ten-year number, not the one on the daycare invoice.

Why does the second paycheck lose so much to tax?

Because it's taxed last. The first earner's salary fills the standard deduction and the low brackets; every dollar the second earner adds lands on top, at the couple's marginal rate, then pays its own Social Security, Medicare and state tax on top of that. A $60,000 paycheck in a 22% household can lose 35% to 40% before the daycare bill arrives. That's the rate this tool shows, not the one on a tax-bracket chart.

Isn't the child tax credit basically a raise for having a kid?

It is $2,200 a year per child, about $183 a month, which covers roughly a week of center care for an infant in most states. It shrinks above $400,000 of joint income and part of it only comes back to families who owe enough tax or earn enough to claim the refundable piece. It's real money, and it isn't a childcare plan.

FSA or the care credit? I keep hearing both.

Take one, not both: every dollar run through a dependent care FSA comes off the credit's $3,000-per-child expense cap. The FSA shelters up to $7,500 from income tax, Social Security and Medicare, so it wins for anyone in the 22% bracket or above. The credit, now 50% for the lowest incomes and 35% up to $150,000 joint, wins for lower earners with two kids, as long as they owe enough tax to use it. The tool picks the better one for you and says which.

What about a nanny share?

Two families splitting one nanny usually pay 60% to 70% of the full rate each, which puts a share in the same range as a center for one child and well below it for two. Each family is a separate employer for payroll tax, and each can run its share through an FSA or the credit. The catch is finding a family on your schedule, in your neighborhood, with a kid your kid can stand.

Grandma watches the kids for free. Is there a tax angle?

Yes, and it's legal. Pay her. Wages to a parent for watching your child in your home are exempt from Social Security and Medicare for a married couple, so there's no nanny tax, and what you pay counts as care expenses for the FSA or the credit. She reports it as income, usually in a lower bracket than yours. Put it in writing, pay by check, and give her a W-2. The grandchildren will be insufferable about it either way.

Does the USDA number include college?

No. The USDA stopped counting at 17, and it was a 2015 estimate besides, so this page inflates it. College is its own bill, and it has its own tool: Saving for College, linked from the bottom of the chart, shows what four years will cost when a child born this year enrolls and the monthly 529 contribution that covers it.

What does this leave out?

Health insurance premiums for the kid, the second earner's own Social Security record, a second car or a bigger apartment, and the value of the parent's time at home, which is the whole point and has no price. It also assumes the parent who stays home is the lower earner and comes back at the same hours. Change the raise, penalty and match fields if your field is kinder, or harsher, than the averages.

Not financial advice. Not parenting advice either; the kid will be fine.

How this is calculated

This year

  • Taxes are the household's 2026 federal, Social Security, Medicare, state and state payroll taxes, from the marriage penalty calculator's model: a joint return when married, otherwise two returns with the children claimed by whichever partner makes it cheapest, head of household included. Everyone rents and takes the standard deduction. The second paycheck's tax is the household's bill with it minus the bill without it.
  • Childcare breaks follow the 2025 tax law: a dependent care FSA of up to $7,500 excluded from income and payroll tax, or the child and dependent care credit, 50% of up to $3,000 of expenses for one child under 13 or $6,000 for two or more, falling a point per $2,000 of income above $15,000 to 35%, then a point per $4,000 (joint) above $150,000 to 20%. The credit is nonrefundable and the FSA lowers its expense cap dollar for dollar, so the household takes whichever saves more. The child tax credit is recomputed after the care credit, with the refundable part limited to $1,700 a child and 15% of earnings over $2,500.
  • The break-even salary is found by bisection: the second salary at which working, after its taxes, childcare and childcare breaks, leaves the household exactly what one income does.

The years ahead

  • Both paths run in today's dollars under 2026 law. The working partner's pay rises by the raise rate each year; the partner at home earns nothing for the years out, then returns at what they would have made, less the penalty per year out, and resumes raises. Children age a year each year, moving from infant to toddler to preschool to before- and after-school care, and out of care at 13; whenever both partners work, the household pays for it.
  • The retirement match is the employer's share of the second salary, counted only in years it's earned, and each year's difference compounds at the return you set. Lost Social Security credits, health insurance, commuting, a second car and the value of a parent's time are not modeled.
  • Childcare prices are Child Care Aware of America's 2024 state averages for full-time care by age and setting, raised to August 2026 prices with the CPI. Where a state didn't report a price, it's estimated from the national average scaled to what the state did report, and the page says so. A nanny is Care.com's national $870-a-week posted rate, scaled by the state's price level, plus 7.65% employer payroll tax, for as long as any child is under five; school-age children then use center prices. Relatives are free.
  • The cost to 18 is the USDA's 2015 estimate by age and income band for the younger child in a two-child married-couple family, inflated with the CPI, with its child care and education line replaced by your childcare. It leaves out pregnancy, birth and college.
  • This is a planning estimate, not financial or tax advice.

Sources

Childcare and USDA data compiled 2026-10-02.