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Is College Worth It?

Four years of tuition and lost paychecks against what a degree earns over a career, by major, compared with starting work at 18. Real prices, real pay data, and only the money half of the question.

College pays for itself by

Age 34

For the median major at an in-state public university, a graduate falls $149K behind someone who started working at 18, bottoms out at 22, catches up at 34, and is $1.8M ahead at 65. That's after taxes, tuition and investing the difference, in today's dollars.
Lifetime pay, before tax
+$1.3M
More than working at 18, not invested
Leave after 2 years
+$131K
At 65, even at 53
Weighted by the odds
+$1.3M
73.3% of full-time starters finish within six years
Ahead of (or behind) working at 18 Work at 18 Finish the degreeLeave after 2 years
−$500K$0$500K$1M$1.5M$2M20253035404550556065Break-even
Age 65 +$1.8M Finish the degree+$131K Leave after 2 years

Net worth difference at each birthday, after taxes and tuition, with everyone investing what they have left. Living costs are the same on every path, so they're left out.

Full-time pay by age Work at 18DegreeSome college
$0$20K$40K$60K$80K$100K202530354045505560
Age 64 $54K Work at 18$91K Degree$63K Some college

Medians, 2025 dollars; school years show what you earn in school. Recent graduates are 4.2% unemployed and 39.4% work in jobs that don't need a degree. Across all recent graduates, unemployment is 5.7%, against 7.2% for young workers without one (2026-06).

Every major, same school and price

8 of 73 majors never catch up with working at 18 before 65. Pick a row to use it above.

MajorPay at 22–27Pay at 35–45In jobs needing no degreeBreaks evenAt 65
$90K$131K15.8%Age 27 +$5.3M
$85K$135K17.9%Age 27 +$5.3M
$85K$130K14.7%Age 27 +$5M
$87K$120K19.1%Age 27 +$4.6M
$82K$123K21.1%Age 28 +$4.6M
$80K$120K20.1%Age 28 +$4.3M
$75K$120K17.9%Age 29 +$4.1M
$75K$115K15.6%Age 29 +$3.9M
$72K$115K33.1%Age 29 +$3.8M
$70K$112K27.8%Age 29 +$3.5M
$83K$100K31.7%Age 28 +$3.5M
$72K$109K28.7%Age 29 +$3.5M
$75K$105K31.1%Age 29 +$3.4M
$75K$105K26.4%Age 29 +$3.4M
$67K$105K29.1%Age 30 +$3.1M
$70K$100K26.2%Age 30 +$3M
$65K$104K44.4%Age 31 +$2.9M
$67K$100K25.6%Age 30 +$2.8M
$68K$97K21.2%Age 30 +$2.7M
$60K$100K49.3%Age 32 +$2.5M
$70K$87K12.8%Age 30 +$2.3M
$64K$90K45.2%Age 31 +$2.2M
$52K$100K42%Age 35 +$2.2M
$52K$100K48.7%Age 35 +$2.2M
$60K$92K38.1%Age 33 +$2.1M
$60K$91K25.7%Age 33 +$2.1M
$54K$96K49%Age 35 +$2.1M
$60K$90K50.4%Age 33 +$2M
$58K$87K39.4%Age 34 +$1.8M
$52K$90K49.5%Age 36 +$1.7M
$62K$80K47%Age 32 +$1.6M
$60K$81K22.5%Age 33 +$1.6M
$52K$88K53%Age 37 +$1.6M
$50K$88K43%Age 38 +$1.5M
$56K$82K52.6%Age 35 +$1.5M
$45K$91K45.3%Age 40 +$1.4M
$49K$87K43.3%Age 39 +$1.4M
$50K$86K42.8%Age 38 +$1.4M
$56K$80K57.1%Age 35 +$1.4M
$55K$80K45.5%Age 36 +$1.3M
$52K$80K45.2%Age 38 +$1.2M
$52K$80K47.1%Age 38 +$1.2M
$50K$80K37.1%Age 39 +$1.1M
$50K$80K65.8%Age 39 +$1.1M
$50K$80K50.5%Age 39 +$1.1M
$50K$80K52.1%Age 39 +$1.1M
$50K$79K52%Age 40 +$1M
$45K$83K51.1%Age 42 +$1M
$48K$80K50.1%Age 41 +$971K
$46K$80K46.9%Age 42 +$902K
$47K$79K53.5%Age 42 +$880K
$40K$85K30.5%Age 45 +$874K
$48K$77K54%Age 42 +$845K
$50K$75K31.4%Age 41 +$837K
$48K$76K48.5%Age 42 +$795K
$45K$75K38%Age 45 +$615K
$45K$75K58.1%Age 45 +$605K
$45K$75K54.6%Age 45 +$605K
$50K$70K48.3%Age 43 +$587K
$50K$70K39.1%Age 43 +$587K
$44K$75K63.9%Age 46 +$559K
$45K$72K58.9%Age 47 +$454K
$45K$72K48.3%Age 47 +$454K
$50K$67K45.1%Age 45 +$436K
$48K$65K45.6%Age 50 +$240K
$45K$65K55.3%Age 58 +$99K
$42K$66K47.5%Never −$10K
$48K$60K24.5%Never −$35K
$45K$62K21.7%Never −$50K
$43K$60K30.1%Never −$271K
$46K$56K16%Never −$354K
$45K$56K28.1%Never −$401K
$45K$55K16.2%Never −$458K
$45K$52K22.3%Never −$626K

How the deal has changed since 2015

Public university, in-state: sticker tuition is down 6.7% since 2015–16 after inflation, and the average after grants is down 47.7%. The early-career pay gap between graduates and high-school graduates went from $24K to $20K. Run today's comparison with 2015's numbers and the median major breaks even at age 31; with 2025's, at age 34.

Tuition and fees StickerAfter grants
$0$5K$10K$15K20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

College Board, 2025 dollars, by fall of the school year.

Median pay at 22 to 27 Bachelor'sHigh school
$30K$40K$50K$60K$70K20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

New York Fed, full-time workers, 2025 dollars.

Age a degree pays for itself
3032343620152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Today's comparison with each year's tuition and early-career pay; gaps are years it never did.

About this tool

Who it's for
For students and parents deciding whether a degree, and which major, is worth its cost.
What you can enter
Major, tuition and fees, community college or university, what you'd borrow and at what rate, pay while in school and for working at 18, investment return, inflation and retirement age.
What it runs on
College Board prices, New York Fed and Census Bureau pay by major and age, National Student Clearinghouse completion rates, and 2026 federal tax and student loan rates. Sources and simplifications are under How this is calculated.
Who made it
Sam Wen, co-founder of Square. Free, no sign-up; it runs in your browser. Last updated .

Spot a mistake, or a rule that changed? Tell me.

Frequently asked questions

Isn’t the pay gap just because smarter kids go to college?

Partly, and the New York Fed says so in the fine print under its own chart. People who finish a degree differ from people who don't in ways a paycheck can't untangle. Studies that compare students just above and below a school's admissions cutoff still find a real payoff, but treat the median graduate's pay as the optimistic case if you'd be a marginal student, and the some-college line as the realistic one if you're not sure you'll finish.

Why doesn’t the cost include the dorm and the meal plan?

Because the person who skips college has to live somewhere and eat something too. Both paths here spend the same on living, so only the costs college adds count: tuition, fees and books. The real cost of college is mostly the paycheck you don't get for four years, which at a public university is several times the tuition after grants. If your dorm costs far more than the apartment you'd rent instead, add the difference to the tuition field.

Should I just become an electrician?

Maybe! The work-at-18 line is the median high-school graduate, not someone in a union apprenticeship. Skilled trades often pay well above that median and start paying during training, which is exactly the kind of path that beats a low-paying major on this page. Raise the pay at 18 to see what a strong start does, but remember the median degree's advantage is mostly earned after 35, so a fast start has to keep climbing to stay ahead.

My parents are paying. Is it free?

Not to them. Every dollar of tuition is a dollar that isn't compounding in somebody's brokerage account, and this page charges the degree for that. It does change the risk, though: you can't default on your parents (legally). Set the loan to zero and the math doesn't move much; the loan mostly changes who's on the hook.

Why do student loans barely change the answer?

Because the money gets spent either way, and a 6.52% loan costs about what the invested money would have earned. What loans change is the monthly squeeze: the payment comes due six months after graduation, when pay is lowest. The stat above shows how much of a new graduate's take-home it eats. Public Service Loan Forgiveness, teacher forgiveness and income-driven plans aren't modeled; if you'd qualify, the loan is cheaper than this.

Should I skip college if my major never breaks even?

This only counts money. Teachers, social workers and artists mostly know the pay going in. If the gap bothers you, the levers that matter most are on this page: the price (in-state, community college first, or a better aid offer), finishing on time, and not leaving with debt and no degree, which is the worst line on the chart.

Partly jokes. Not financial advice, and definitely not advice on what to major in.

How this is calculated

The comparison

  • Three 18-year-olds, one budget. One starts working full time, one finishes a degree, one leaves school early. All three spend the same on living, so housing and food cancel out and only what college adds counts: tuition, fees and books.
  • Whoever is ahead invests the difference. Each year's take-home pay, minus tuition and loan payments, goes into investments at the return you set, after inflation. Net worth is compared at every birthday; break-even is the first one where the graduate has caught up.
  • Pay by age runs through the median full-time pay of each group: 16- to 19-year-olds at 18, the New York Fed's medians at 22 to 27, and the Census Bureau's at 25–34, 35–44, 45–54 and 55–64. A major moves the degree line by how its early- and mid-career medians compare with all majors'. Leaving early earns the Census some-college median, which is a modest premium over high school.
  • Taxes are 2026 federal income tax and FICA for a single filer, applied in today's dollars every year (brackets are indexed). State income tax is left out.
  • Loans are drawn evenly each year of school at a fixed rate (6.5% for federal undergraduate loans this year), accrue interest in school and are repaid on a standard plan from the year after leaving. Payments are fixed in dollars, so inflation shrinks them.
  • The odds of finishing come from the National Student Clearinghouse: the share of full-time students from the fall 2019 cohort who finished a degree within six years, at any school. The odds-weighted figure counts everyone else as leaving after the years you set, which is conservative for the few still enrolled.
  • Since 2015 re-runs today's comparison with each year's average tuition for your school type and each year's early-career pay, after inflation, keeping your other settings.

Defaults and simplifications

  • Tuition is College Board's 2025–26 enrollment-weighted average, either published or net of the average grant, plus books and supplies. College Board publishes no national out-of-state net price or price history, so out-of-state is the in-state figure plus today's out-of-state surcharge. Community college grants can exceed tuition; the excess helps with living costs, which this page leaves out, so those years cost only books.
  • Every figure is a median for full-time, year-round workers, in 2025 dollars. Majors are from the 2024 American Community Survey (New York Fed, August 6, 2026) and count bachelor's degrees only, not graduate degrees. Unemployment and part-time work aren't modeled.
  • Pay curves are a snapshot of today's workers by age. Real wages for everyone tend to grow over a career, which would make every gap a bit bigger in dollars.
  • Part of the gap between graduates and everyone else reflects who goes to college, not just what it teaches. Read the medians as the typical outcome, not a promise.
  • Loan forgiveness, income-driven repayment, the student loan interest deduction, education tax credits, retirement plans and Social Security benefits aren't modeled.
  • This is a planning estimate, not financial advice.

Sources

Data compiled 2026-10-02.